population decline this time? In truth, Wales’ Observation: You have put forward some really interesting demographic and economic projections based on your research, and it is evident from your data that nationalism, combined with isolationism has negatively promoted a pernicious social disease that has serious implications for the future economic and social health of Wales and indeed for the UK as a whole.
in the chart coincide with the planned pension increases to 68 over the next
planned increases to the state pension age may yet be subject to change, remains broadly unchanged over time. Population and demographic trends are inexorably tied to questions about politics, economics and society. What level of care can we afford future generations in old age?
Many experts believe that the world’s population could peak before the end of this century. This series of releases brings together in one place key data on the economy, population and infrastructure in Wales to meet user needs for data on the three Welsh economic regions (North Wales, Mid and South West Wales, and South East Wales). Unemployment amongst coalminers rose from 2% in April 1924 to 28.5% in August 1925. Population grew by 11.0% since 2002 and population average age increased by 1.6 years in the same period. In general, health and social care spending is highest in old age whilst education spending per head is highest for those under 25. Put simply, the Welsh block grant is spread between fewer people, which is good news for the real spending power of the Welsh Government. According to the principal projection, the population of Wales is set to peak at 3.16 million in 2023, more than two decades earlier than previously projected.
They are based on assumptions that are representative of what has happened in the UK to date.
Coal exports remained a significant contribution to the Welsh economy throughout the early 20th Century; however, increased competition from abroad and the availability of cheaper substitute fuels had started to depress demand for Welsh coal. It is imperative that an understanding of our demographic trajectory is embedded within the political discourse and actively informs policymaking in Wales. The population projections indicate a convergence in dependency ratios around 2050. has relatively lower levels of inward international migration.
September 2019: The percentage of people who are Black, Asian or from other ethnic minority backgrounds was previously calculated as a percentage of all persons - this has now been revised so that it is based only on those who responded to the question.
Nevertheless, the composition of Wales’ future demographics and, in particular, trends in the pensioner, working age and child population will play a critical role in the debate around how to sustainably fund our local and public services.
Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Unless otherwise stated, the views contained within this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of Cardiff University. other parts of the UK. a share of the total population, this cohort will continue to grow relatively
We have provided a few examples below that you can copy and paste to your site: Your data export is now complete. The risks associated with slow population growth and its effect on tax devolution have long been recognised in Scotland, where slow population growth has been a feature of demographic trends there for some time. In March 2019, the Annual Population survey data has been revised back to 2012, due to taking on board the latest population estimates. Researchers can use these projections if they think that an alternative future is more likely. Please check your download folder.
However, tabulated area figures refer to (typically smaller) actual built-up areas in order to present a more realistic population density.
Wales’ over Wales’ Wales is The last time Wales experienced a prolonged episode of population degrowth was during the 1920s. relative population growth is intrinsically tied into the operation of the Backlinks from other websites and blogs are the lifeblood of our site and are our primary source of new traffic.
The IPC method does not expose Scotland to the risk of relative population decline. Wales’ economic activity levels at an all-time high — what is driving the This is because the Barnett formula only determines changes in the block grant from year to year, reflecting the latest population shares; the size of the previous year’s grant that constitutes the majority of the current grant is not adjusted to account for the new population ratio. A dependency ratio measures the number of children and pensioners per person of working age.
I am minded to believe that Immigration, can and should be viewed in a positive way, a force for good rather than vice versa. Peoples’ need for public services and their ability to contribute through taxes varies across their lifespan. migration will not be enough to offset the natural change in population from
Some of the 2001 figures are approximate values.
Faced with bleak economic prospects at home, many decided to emigrate. Your comments are spot on.
It is no secret that Wales’ population is older than the UK average.
Of course, 1.1M total residents estimates 2019.
The aim of this release is to give a statistical breakdown of the region and to highlight differences that may exist across the region for the nine topics in question. Registered charity no.
Fast forward
And how do today’s policies rank in terms of intergenerational fairness? Explanation: All population figures and depicted boundaries are based on output areas officially assigned to the 2011 built-up areas. The population of the UK as a whole is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace than previously. Wales lost nearly 400,000 people between 1925 and 1939. been buoyed by inward international migration and migration into Wales from I am of a post 2nd WW war generation and I’m not sure whether or not I’m in the minority, sadly, there are some folk of my generation who hold some negative views towards immigration, yet, I have also met with and discussed many these issues with certain groups of youths,and their families, most of whom hold similar fanciful and misguided perceptions of progressing in a “Dad’s Army” society.
People that originated from England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Unfortunately, any rational arguments have often been distorted by opportunistic anti EU advocates who have played upon the fears of insecure folk who have felt abandoned by the political elite and authorities whom they blame for their plight, ( loss of traditional industries) where lack of investment in respective communities has influenced their daily lives and mode of thinking. are more deaths than births in any given year. If you use our datasets on your site or blog, we ask that you provide attribution via a link back to this page. Despite its seemingly ‘dry’ nature, this data is widely used by researcher and policy makers alike to inform fiscal projections, identify future demand for hospital and school places, and estimate the future cost of state pensions.
This cohort currently accounts for a smaller share of Wales’ population compared to the UK average.
Population density was 655 residents per square kilometer. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.
This is obviously, a complex scenario, and there are no easy fixes, but Brexit, has been the catalyst for much of this latent anger, which has been raked and stoked up by opportunistic Brexiteers and right wing populist parties to further their ambitions to build a parody of Trump’s Mexican wall.
94.2 percent of the population is British White i.e. For those of us who wish to speculate, the ONS helpfully produce variants of its principal population projection to account for different assumptions about the future (e.g. However, since the under 16 cohort in Wales is projected to grow It’s not a happy prognosis.
We have provided a few examples below that you can copy and paste to your site: Your image export is now complete.
United Nations - World Population Prospects, Cardiff, UK Metro Area Population 1950-2020, The current metro area population of Cardiff in 2020 is, The metro area population of Cardiff in 2019 was, The metro area population of Cardiff in 2018 was, The metro area population of Cardiff in 2017 was. Copyright Cardiff University. This was one of the reasons why Scotland opted for the Indexed per Capita (IPC) method when determining the block grant adjustment for tax devolution, as opposed to the Comparable Method (CM) agreed for Wales.
The projections may not fully reflect the fact that there is a net outflow of people from Wales to other parts of the UK among 30- and 40-year olds, a trend that is reversed among those aged 50 and over. I would add that these data would be even more intriguing if the probable impact of post Brexit funding and residency restrictions were factored in. Though much of the findings were overshadowed by the hubbub of political developments, the data reveals some important insights into Wales’ demographic trajectory and shows – for the first time – a projected decline in Wales’ population in the near-term.
the main source of funding for the Welsh Government. Required fields are marked *. London 9 M. Manchester 3 M The ONS makes clear that its population projections are just that – “projections not predictions”. One of the factors determining the rate of convergence is differences in the rate of population growth between Wales and England.
gradually increase the pension age from 67 to 68 between 2044 and 2046. This blog post was prepared by the Wales Fiscal Analysis team, part of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff Univeristy. lower/higher migration, lower/higher fertility rates and longer/shorter life expectancies). Although the reasons behind this are not entirely clear, it happens to coincide with the transition of the cohort that is currently in their thirties to pension age.
relatively slower than the UK average, the gap between the dependency ratios There is clearly a problem, although, there is a danger of labelling certain generations as being biased. Wales has various ethnic groups from different part of the world.
Should we be concerned by this development?
2023 onwards. This is expected to have a sizeable impact on dependency ratios.
How can we sustainably fund our public services?
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