JTWC still reports a spread of 230 miles among model solutions three days out, the big question being when that curve northeast begins. Global Forecast System forecast ensemble depicts initial northwest movement, then a curve northeast in Tokyo’s general direction, while the Europe and UK ensembles favor a track more toward southwest Japan and Okinawa. More this evening and again around midnight. More later, this evening and around midnight. At 9 p.m. Friday, Chan-hom was 439 miles southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, trekking east-northeast at 7 mph and had weakened to 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center. All other U.S. bases in Japan remain in seasonal TCCOR. -- Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: Noon Thursday. If Chan-hom stays on present heading, JTWC projects it to peak at 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts at mid-afternoon Thursday, then curve northeast, pick up forward speed and gradually weaken as it passes south of Kyushu, Shikoku and Honshu over the weekend. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects it to curve southeast and dissipate in the next day or so. There remains a spread of about 115 miles in model solutions 36 hours out, according to JTWC.

Destructive winds are not forecast, but Typhoon Chan-hom remains close enough that a heightened state of alert is warranted, should Chan-hom strengthen and/or move closer to those locales. From there, JTWC forecasts Chan-hom to hook sharply northeast, passing 194 miles south-southeast of Sasebo and 167 miles south-southeast of Iwakuni between 11 a.m. and 10 p.m. Saturday, still packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at storm's center.

Storm Tracker has the watch. More this evening and again around midnight. -- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 3 p.m. Thursday. Between 4 to 6 inches of rain are forecast for the Kanto Plain. At 3 p.m., Chan-hom was 276 miles southwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, moving east at 10 mph holding steady at 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts. Model-track guidance and the GFS, CMC and ECMWF forecast ensembles show similar disparity. Keep track of the latest information on tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific with the USA TODAY Hurricane Tracker Chan-hom is forecast to pass 276 miles east of Kadena at 2 a.m. Friday, make a sharp turn northeast late Friday and pass 224 miles south-southeast of Sasebo and 200 miles south-southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni between 1 and 9 p.m. Saturday. At 9 a.m., Chan-hom was 753 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and 919 miles southeast of Sasebo Naval Base, crawling west-northwest at 3 mph packing 40-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts at center.

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