After the targeted killings of five police officers in Dallas and three in Baton Rouge, the theme of restoration of law and order—and support for the police—became central to the successful presidential campaign of Donald J. Trump. Violent crime is most prevalent and has risen the most in cities characterized by (among other things) higher levels of residential segregation by race, higher rates of poverty, and lower levels of educational attainment. There has been widespread speculation that the events surrounding the shooting death of an unarmed young black man by a white police officer in Ferguson, Missouri—and a string of similar incidents across the country—have led to increases in crime in the United States. We also note that Allison and Waterman (2002) have raised doubts about the implementation of fixed effects negative binomial regressions in leading statistical software packages, including the one we used, STATA—which is another reason to consider the random effects models. Aggregate and disaggregate monthly Part I criminal offense data were gathered 12 months before and after August 2014 from police department data requests and websites in 81 large U.S. cities. You can be signed in via any or all of the methods shown below at the same time. He notes that former prisoners are at increased risk of committing crime and that research shows a lag between time of release and time of reoffending. Police pullback is key to most of these discussions, but the data cited in popular accounts often pertain to crime rates, not police activity. There have to be other factors involved”. Access to society journal content varies across our titles. Public concern about police violence, as measured by Google search activity, was associated with more violent crime, and here there is a small improvement in model fit between the restricted and fuller models. What the study suggests may have driven up the homicide rate is a more systemic breakdown in community trust in institutions. An alternative version of the Ferguson effect thesis focuses less on policing per se than on citizens. It is often seen to involve “de-policing.” But is this driven by heightened public scrutiny in a community? Neil Gross is the Charles A. Dana Professor of Sociology at Colby College. As noted previously, the 43 cities in our sample saw a mean increase in homicide of 16 percent between the two periods, as compared to a gain of 18 percent between the full years 2014 and 2015. Our lone time-variant adjustment is the number of local police killings of citizens in the period covered by the Google search data series. He finds that between 2014 and 2015, Forty cities experienced homicide increases and 16 saw declines or, in one case, no change.

Or perhaps the Ferguson effect isn’t about de-policing but rather about citizen perceptions that affect people’s willingness to cooperate with the police? Some writing on the Ferguson effect (e.g., Rosenfeld 2016) reason that outrage over police mistreatment of citizens—African Americans in particular—might undermine citizen trust in the police and lead to a crime-inducing decrease in cooperation (for discussion, see Cook 2015; Tyler, Goff, and MacCoun 2015). This article uses a relatively novel methodological technique to explore the association. A related possibility, suggested to us by Patrick Sharkey, is that in the aftermath of police violence and then protests in cities like Baltimore and St. Louis—protests that were met with shows of force by local authorities—young people’s perceptions of the legitimacy of core social institutions changed. The Black Lives Matter movement began when a San Francisco Bay Area–based activist, Alicia Garza, wrote a Facebook post in 2013 lamenting that George Zimmerman had been found not guilty in the death of Trayvon Martin. Marcus Mann is a PhD candidate in sociology at Duke University. To do so, he draws on the work of historian Randolph Roth (2009) and crime scholar Gary LaFree (1998), who argue that American homicide patterns are tied to trust in government. Figure 1. While social scientists have learned much in recent years about how neighborhood context matters for crime, disorder, and the reproduction of poverty (Harding 2010; Sampson 2012; Sharkey 2013), we are also learning from ethnographic and network-based studies that there is an important endogenous component to urban violence: it occurs not simply because an individual perpetrator of violence has been exposed to predisposing social conditions but often as part of a long, escalating chain of social interaction. Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), measures of model fit, improve with the fuller model. This is far below the actual number of Americans who were then concerned about police violence; recall that twice that many were following Black Lives Matter on Twitter alone (though the Twitter data covered the entire United States). Neil Gross . Since our measures of residential racial segregation, educational attainment, and poverty did not change over the course of the time series, they cannot be responsible, in a statistical sense, for year to year increases or decreases in our outcome variables. The third possible contributor outlined is a growing number of released prisoners in the nation’s cities tied to decarceration. Using an untapped data source—Google searches—we ask: Is there evidence directly linking public concern about police violence to the recent increase in crime? Harcourt 2001; Sampson 2012). This could well be because of police pullback or declining public cooperation. For Hausman test statistics, we used ordinary least squares models with logged dependent variables. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2016.01.001. In Baltimore, for example, we found a rise in searches in April 2015 (corresponding with Freddie Gray’s death and civil unrest) and then the beginnings of a rise in murder in May (corresponding with the withdrawal of National Guard troops that had been deployed.) They subsequently revised their terms of service. In the most recent period, 26 cities saw increases, while 17 saw decreases or no change.

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